Jambiflash.com – The exchange rate (currency) of the rupiah against the US dollar in today’s trading, Friday (7/12/2024), closed stronger by 58 points or 0.36 percent to Rp16,136.5.
Previously, the rupiah opened at the level of Rp16,143 per US dollar.
Money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the US dollar was impacted by a weaker-than-expected CPI data, indicating that inflation was slightly calmer than anticipated in June.
This figure increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be more confident to start cutting interest rates.
“Traders estimate an 83.4 percent probability that the Fed will lower interest rates in September, compared to a 64.7 percent chance seen last week, according to CME Fedwatch,” said Ibrahim in his research on Friday (7/12/2024).
However, the sharp decline in the yen raised questions about whether the Japanese government was actively intervening in the currency market. Officials provided little clues on this issue, even after issuing a series of warnings in recent weeks regarding aggressive bets against the yen.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet data, to be released in July, is expected to provide further clarity on whether the government intervened. Traders are also speculating whether short positions on the yen were pressured by the sharp drop in the dollar, following weak CPI readings in June.
China’s trade surplus surged to its highest level in nearly two years, while exports also grew more than expected. However, increased trade tariffs on major Chinese exports, such as electric vehicles, could offset this trend.
“The current focus is on the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party to get more signals on the economy and stimulus. The meeting is scheduled to take place next week,” said Ibrahim.
From domestic sentiment, the government has forecasted that Indonesia’s economic growth will remain at 5.2 percent by the end of the year, in line with the economic growth assumption in the state budget (APBN) of 5.2 percent.
“Although the global economy is still stagnant, various international institutions predict Indonesia’s economic growth in 2024 to be below that level,” said Ibrahim.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) even predicts Indonesia’s economic growth in 2024 to be only 5 percent. Similarly, the World Bank projects Indonesia’s economic growth this year to be only 5 percent. Bank Indonesia also estimates economic growth in 2024 to be only 5.1 percent.
Indonesia’s potential economic growth of up to 5.2 percent by the end of the year will be supported by a surge in exports and investments. The export data for June, to be released on July 15, is expected to be quite good, indicating a recovery in exports.
In terms of investment, this is evident from the ongoing government infrastructure projects, including national strategic projects (PSN). On the other hand, household consumption is also expected to rebound in the second half of the year, supported by an increase in government spending, which will rise by 2.6 percent by the end of the year from the set ceiling, with state spending reaching Rp 3,412.2 trillion, or 102.6 percent of the target in the 2024 APBN of Rp 3,325.1 trillion.
Based on the above data, the rupiah is predicted to move fluctuatively in the next trade but is expected to close stronger in the range of Rp16,080 – Rp16,150 per US dollar. (uda)
